Monday, January 19, 2009

Is this a trend?

The Ipsos Mori poll tonight is the third in a row that show's a significant shift back to the Conservatives. The figures (with the change from the last poll in brackets) are CON 44%(+5), LAB 30%(-5), LDEM% 17%(+2).

This gives David Cameron and his team a 14% lead and puts them back firmly in the mid-forties. Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report writes: "Clearly it shows a very substantial shift in support from Labour to the Conservatives. Normally I’d advise some caution in any poll showing a big switch in voting intention and advise people to wait to see it confirmed in other polls, but in this case, while the extent of the switch in support is rather larger, the trend is the same as we’ve already seen from Populus, YouGov and ComRes. The boost in Labour support we saw last year appears to have gone into a sharp reverse."