Has Clegg given Cameron a clear run-in to victory?

The latest poll from IpsosMori shows the Conservatives breaching the 50% barrier for the first time since Margaret Thatcher was in power. Whilst Labour's share is unchanged on 24%, the LibDems have dropped five points to 12%.

This poll was carried out between last Friday and Sunday so included the heavily hyped £20 billion of "tax cuts" that Clegg and his disparate band have said they would offer when they are elected to government. As this is likely to be sometime in the future - remember that his stated aim as leader is to double the number of LibDem MPs over the next two general elections - I think we can safely assume that he will not be forming the next government. In fact, if this poll was proved to be accurate then he would be lucky to retain his seat after the next general election!

The key point though is that by adopting a tax cutting agenda, coupled with talk of reducing public spending, he has opened the door for the Conservatives to speak more openly about their economic programme without being accused of wanting to "slash and burn" the public sector.

Go to it David!

Can King Brown Hold Back The Tide?

Faced with the disastrous Henley by-election result - even going so low in the voters' estimation as to come fifth behind both the Greens and the BNP and losing their deposit with only 3% of the vote - and the continued onslaught of the wider opinion polls, you would think that Gordon Brown would do the honourable thing and step down as Prime Minister, call a general election and face the consequences. Well, er, no actually - he's getting on with the job. "By-elections come and by-elections go and blah, blah, blah....".

That is entirely understandable because he knows he still has a majority in the House of Commons that he can corral when the going gets tough. At least half of them are terrified of losing their seats if he did go the people. Up to a point, he can use this fear factor to keep them under control while he waits for the political tide to change.

However painful for the majority of people who really want to see the back of him it might be, he can bluff it out until the last moment possible. Or can he?

According to the latest Ipsos MORI poll Brown's first year in office has seen the fastest fall in personal ratings for a Prime Minister ever recorded. His ratings are currently as low as John Major's were after Black Wednesday, in the years before Labour's 1997 victory under Tony Blair:

• Brown's first year also sees the deepest economic gloom Ipsos MORI has recorded since 1980: seven in ten people (69%) now believe that the general economic condition of the country will get worse over the next 12 months.
• Almost three quarters (73%) of the public are now dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country, and just one in five (21%) are satisfied.
• Seven in ten (70%) are dissatisfied with the way Gordon Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister. Among Labour supporters, equal numbers are satisfied and dissatisfied with Mr Brown (45%)
• Half the population (50%) is satisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party, and three in ten (30%) dissatisfied, while one in five (21%) don't know.
• 82% of Conservative supporters are satisfied with Mr Cameron, and just 9% are dissatisfied (and 35% of Labour supporters are satisfied with Mr Cameron, compared to just 9% of Conservative supporters satisfied with Mr Brown)
• Seven in ten people (69%) now believe that the general economic condition of the country will get worse over the next 12 months; this is the lowest score Ipsos MORI has recorded since March 1980.
  

By any stretch of the imagination Gordon Brown is not perceived to be a popular or succesful Prime Minister. However, there is no one in the higher reaches of the Labour Party who is prepared to take on the task of opposing him. This is not surprising as only a fool would do it now - they would rather wait for the inevitable massive drubbing in the next general election and come in as the saviour who will restrict David Cameron to one term as a Conservative Prime Minister. Who is the fool that thinks he or she can do that, I wonder?

Brown Slides - LibDems Bounce - Conservatives Continue to Soar!

According to an ICM poll in the Grauniad tomorrow Gordon Brown's trials and tribulations continue unabated.

"The figures record the dramatic decline in Labour fortunes since Brown took over as leader. A year ago, Labour had a four-point lead over the Tories in the June Guardian/ICM poll. Support for the party, at 39%, was 14 points higher than today."

Good!

The Dog Days Of Labour!

The Mail on Sunday has got one of the most bizarre graphics I have ever seen to illustrate the current state of the political parties according to a poll by BPIX.

Interestingly, the Conservatives are very close to the 50% barrier with Labour languishing on 26% - the LibDems are back to 14%.

UK Polling Report reports the unsurprising news that 44% think Brown should resign now but only 14% support David Miliband as his replacement - 10% for Jack Straw.



Woof, woof!

Why So Low?

The latest ICM poll is reported at ConservativeHome together with their own running "average" of all recent polls. (How they work out the latter is a mystery to me but I assume it is on some sort of scientific basis.)

What worries me is why are the Conservatives so low in the polls?

A 13% lead looks good but, surely, it should be 25% by now. The LibDems should be losing support - down to their bedrock vote of 15% or 16% rather than rising - and Brown's shamblers should be viewed as dead in the water. They have lost the argument and they should be on a downward trajectory.

Over to you Mr Cameron!

Conservatives should be further ahead in the polls

I gather from the Ben Brogan blog that David Cameron and Andy Coulson have "unleashed the attack dogs" on NuLabour - presumably to counter Brown's "new" offensive against them - look out for a lot of "evil Ashcroft-bashing" and personal accusations of Cameron being a "snob" - see the Coffee House blog - over the next few weeks.

A few days ago I posted this comment on one of the political blogs:

"....it's a bit concerning that David Cameron's team isn't going up in the polls. He should be in the mid-40s by now. I can't believe the little sideshow of Clegg and Huhne giving each other Chinese burns behind the bike sheds at Westminster have caused the LibDems to leap up the polls to over 20%........Andy Coulson and Co must push for a much higher profile of all the Conservative policy proposals....Unless of course they know of some even worse sleaze-related or other incompetent events for Brown and his woeful crew on the horizon?"

Despite the almost daily revelations about the increasing sleaze mountain that Labour has built for itself, my point still stands - the Conservatives should be going up in the polls in their own right.

They have to spear Labour in its heart on two or three big issues now to ensure that Brown and his incompetents just whither on the vine. We can't just rely on them scoring own goals which they will blame anyway on a junior member of staff and cite the resignations of a couple of incompetent officials in the Civil Service or their party machine as having solved their problems.

It appears this might be about to happen. Let's hope so!

"Is this Labour's Winter of DISContent - 2007 style?"

Somebody on the Today programme this morning came up with this question.

It seems that the latest opinion polls might agree - see the details at UK Polling Report and Political Betting.

Of course, this does not mean that the Conservatives are soaring in popularity but it does show that Brown's Labour is at last being seen for what it is - an incompetent bunch of spinners and tax grabbers with its head up it arse!